Dec 15, 2010

Lotto Collection and Drop Rates

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We all know the Daily Chance Collection promises to increase your job loot drop rate by 10%.  Because it's not easy to get, it's very exciting to vault.  
David Reedy created Mission Possible and has so far helped over a thousand players who are non-traders vault this elusive collection (1).
Now that so many players have vaulted their lotto sets, lets take a look at what it really can do for your drop rates.  We are all very lucky because Mike Nestor had an energy account in which none of the drop rate increasing collections were vaulted.  He methodically did runs and vaulted collections to get all of the data below.  I think you will all find the results very interesting.

New York
Before Lotto Vault
After Lotto Vault

Las Vegas
Before Lotto Vault
After Lotto Vault 
Las Vegas and Italy have special collections which also promise a +10% Item drop rate while doing jobs in those cities.  The collection in Las Vegas is called the Matchbook Collection.  Mike vaulted it after doing runs in New York, Las Vegas and Italy with the Lotto Collection vaulted and did another run.
After Lotto and Match Book Vault
Italy
Before Lotto Vault
After Lotto Vault
Mike also vaulted the Dinner is Served Collection which promises a +10% Item drop rate in Italy and did another run.
After Lotto and Dinner is Served Collection Vaults
Since Mikes account is on the Bronze Level, I did a run on my energy account which is on the Ruby Level and has all collections vaulted.  This is to compare the drop rates of the Bronze and Ruby Levels to determine if there is any benefit as far as farming is concerned to move up in tier. There is a slight increase but when you factor in the additional energy you need to spend, it doesn't make sense to continue on past the Bronze Level if you are planning to farm for loot.
Ruby Level
Las Vegas
Italy
This is a lot of data to compare so I put all the numbers in chart form.  Upon review you can see that vaulting these collections does not yield what is promised.  The Lotto Collection does come close in New York and I recall seeing an improvement in Cuba and Moscow.  It's hard to say for Bangkok because I had it vaulted when that destination was launched.  Since farming in Bangkok is no longer useful, I didn't check it out.  I realize this is just one run and to prove that the collections don't work, one would need to do several hundred runs with a larger data pool.  I do know that many players have questioned this and I never noticed an increase in loot drop rates in Las Vegas or Italy after vaulting the Matchbook or Dinner is Served Collection.    
New YorkBefore Lotto VaultAfter Lotto Vault
Total Loot Drop40.2%49.3%
Equipment Loot Drop39.6%49.2%
Total IncreaseN/A9.1%
Equipment IncreaseN/A9.6%

LAS VEGASNo Vaulted CollectionsLotto Collection VaultedLotto and Matchbook Collectons Vaulted
(Bronze)
Lotto and Matchbook Collections Vaulted
(Ruby)
Total Loot Drop Rate13.6%12.6%12.4%13.3%
Equipment Loot Drop Rate5.48%5.68%5.72%6.14%
Total IncreaseN/A- 1.0 %- 1.2%+ 0.3 %
Equipment IncreaseN/A+ 0.20%+0.24%+ 0.66%


ITALY
No Vaulted CollectionsLotto Collection VaultedLotto and Dinner is Served Collections Vaulted
(Bronze)
Lotto and Dinner is Served Collections Vaulted
(Ruby)
Total Loot Drop Rate8.6%8.5%8.5%8.0%
Equipment Loot Drop Rate6.0%6.0%6.0%5.38%
Total IncreaseN/A- 0.1%- 0.1%- 0.60%
Equipment IncreaseN/A   0%0%- 0.62%

I realize this is just one run and to prove that the collections don't work, one would need to do several hundred runs with a larger data pool.  I do know that many players have questioned this and I never noticed an increase in loot drop rates in Las Vegas or Italy after vaulting the Matchbook or Dinner is Served Collection.  When Italy was first launched, I did do a small run on the Dinner is Served Collection and got the same results as above. Vaulting this collection decreased my drop rate as well.  Again, this run was not large enough to prove anything but it does match what is suspected.  It seems the Lotto Collection doesn't increase your drop rate by 10% in Las Vegas or Italy and the Matchbook and Dinner is Served Collections do not work.

Before Vaulting Dinner is Served 
Equipment Loot Drop 6.4%
 After Vaulting Dinner is Served
Equipment Loot Drop 5.6%
Many thanks to Mike Nestor for doing all the runs which made this article possible.

Article written by Jennifer Patterson, Creator of the MW Loot Lady Blog, The Mafia Wars Loot Lady Facebook Fan Page and Co-Host of The Informant Podcast.
All material is protected by copyright law

11 comments:

  1. Very useful and very interesting! thanks!

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  2. you are not taking into account the energy investment in jobs. If I run a job in LV and then level up and run the same job again the drop rate goes down and if I run it again it goes down again. You need to keep switching jobs and cities to keep the drop rate up. Not sure why but it works

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  3. great event, sorry I missed it :(

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  4. MW LootLady. I am not sure whether or not this proves anything about the vegas collections if a book marklet wsa used because a while back zynga engineered into the game to decrease drop rates if you kept "spamming" the same job to farm loot. It was around the time Italy came out. They actually announced this I beleive.

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  5. At Anonymous #3, not sure where you heard that from but it's totally inaccurate and very unfeasible. All the repeat job bookmarklet does is clicks the job for you like you would if you were doing it yourself. The delay is actually slower than a person could do and there is no way for anyone to tell the difference. If they wanted to, they could look for time intervals between clicks but that's not something that could be done on a large scale. The to set a drop rate decrease on those accounts just seems ridiculous. There will always be unfounded rumors in Mafia Wars. If Zynga actually announced such a thing, I would be one of the first to know about it and would have posted it.

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  6. A few month ago there was a rumor from Zynga that loot drops would decrease once you have mastered the job. I've never noticed something like that when doing Italy jobs anyway.
    Great statistic.. and yes, it doesn't *prove* anything, but the 9.1 and 9.6 percent are so close to the promised 10%, and the other 0.1 and 0.6% are so close to 0%, that it really makes sense.

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  7. perhaps instead of adding new stuff to the game all the time, they should fix at least this, since it is a pretty important issue to lie to players about the effects of certain collections...

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  8. "There will always be unfounded rumors in Mafia Wars. If Zynga actually announced such a thing, I would be one of the first to know about it and would have posted it." - you said
    How?Why?
    What are the ties that bind you and Zynga? Are you using it to promote your own blog?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Just another thing Zynga fails at. Eventually, they have to realize the customers of MW are completely different then the typical casual consumer. More aware of these things and they'll have to put out more and more content to feed the rush. Or, balance the game and make things more reliable and predictable.

    ReplyDelete
  10. @anonymous #9
    MW is most definitely a "casual game", and most of its users are "typical casual consumer". The real difference is that they have a much larger user base than most other games, and with a large enough population, somebody's going to understand statistics.

    @lootlady
    Do you by any chance know if these 5000 job runs are separated by a day or so? If there is a large gap between when one run ends and the next one starts, that would largely negate the rumors.
    Thanks again for the stats :)

    ReplyDelete
  11. How? and Why?because this site reaches many and those people are connected to many and so on ,and info gets here real quick,thats how and why usingn what to promote what???????? thisd is a mfia info site one of the most popular thats ur answer right there dont have to zynga affiliated to know stuff info travels fast over this new thing called the internet

    ReplyDelete

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