Aug 25, 2014

Cartel Clash Ice Analysis

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The first 3 days of the Cartel Clash have come and gone. Looking at the final numbers for each cartel and comparing them to the number of reported Daily Active Users, the outcome isn’t what one would expect [1]. There have been more ices each day but less players. Taking the total number of ices earned for the day and dividing that by the number of daily players we can get an average number of ices per player. Obviously this is just hypothetical because the number of daily players is very inflated. On day one and two the average ice count wasn’t even enough to cover the Don’s Challenge of 500 ices. The option to switch sides also makes these outcomes questionable. One would expect that the gaps between the 2 sides would increase in favor of the day one winning side but we saw the opposite. The reported metrics are also surprising. During Family competitive events the number of daily players increases but again we are seeing the opposite [1]. As history has told us the metrics mean very little as far as the longevity of the game is concerned. If they mattered Mafia Wars would have been shutdown a long time ago. Correlating and comparing them to something is very useful because these numbers are reported by Facebook and Zynga can’t mess with them. They can only try to find the magic events that increase them and the Cartel Clash isn’t one of them. To date, Limited Time Properties and competitive Family Events are the only ones to have caused spikes. The key metric for this event, which we will never know, is how many reward points were spent on stamina refills, kamikazes and switching sides?

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Russian Ices 24.68 Million 34.59 Million 35.60 Million
Diablo Ices 23.07 Million 33.70 Million 38.55 Million
Total Ices 47.75 Million 68.26 Million 74.15 Million
Difference 1.61 Million 890,000 2.95 Million
Daily Players 143,872 140,808 136,895
Ices/Player 332 485 542

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11 comments:

  1. Ices per player may have been on the increase due to the Family Missions that ended Sunday required so many South Africa Ices and Arena participation (which by its nature increases ice numbers)

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  2. You would at least think that people would try and get the 500 ices a day to get the Don's Challenge reward.

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    1. I don't have enough stamina to get 500 freakin' ices a day, so I figured screw it on Day 1 of this "event"

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  3. u would think the 6 russians that switched would have stayed russian they should switch back

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  4. The Don's Challenge targets seem to vary - my targets are 50, 150 and only 300 for gold. Could be based on level (<4k), stamina (<10k), ices (<100k) or some other magic formula, perhaps?

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  5. To me it depends what is on offer from ZY to help me make my mind up how play this game. I with one act only build att/deff so I have limited stamina and next to no energy its a fantastic act to go in hard and fast but daily ice count is only 40-50. My stamina act has no problem reaching 500 count arena or fight list. We have so many ways of playing most of what ZY offer with in-game goals is hard to achieve unless you pay. I do pay with one act and that act lags far behind my serial script act??

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  6. Zynga is cheating ^_^

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  7. If our group is representative then a whole lot of players could care less about this "event" and are playing the game to suit their recreational objectives versus something Zynga is doing in a weak attempt to boost game participation. A few of our members get 400-600 ices a day but none of them are going out of their way to top 500 just to produce a maximum "reward." The marginal contribution of the gear - particularly for longer established players - is meaningless and lower level players most likely don't see significant value in chasing gear that will probably be obsolete in the not too far future.

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  8. Actually metrics do matter at the end of the day Loot Lady. If the numbers get down to a certain point the paying players will no longer spend money like they have in the past on a game with 5,000 players. It is the big money players who keep this game alive and when they stop spending the game is done. It hasn't reached that point yet but to say metrics don't matter is incorrect in my opinion.

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    1. I said they don't matter as far as longevity is concerned. It's well past the point where they would. Zynga is milking the big money players for all they can and obviously don't care about the small spenders. If they did things would be more reasonably priced. It's been like this for a few years. The elite players compete with each other, as long as there are a few of them around the playerbase matters not.

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  9. I will forever think that Zynga never dreamed this little game would have lasted this long. That's why so there is so much confusion and indifference from them concerning the game. Zynga never really planned on the game getting as big so it doesn't have any grand plans on fixing the problems. They probably figured at some point the players would figure out they don't care and stop spending. Some have but you have some obsessive people out there who won't stop until the game shuts down. Zynga has already moved on to other games and will keep the lights on until the cost of keeping the game running exceeds the profits.

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